Bellevue, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

015
FXUS63 KOAX 142005
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (15-20%) of thunderstorms will be possible
  tonight over northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa.

- Heat indices expected to reach near 105 Friday and the in the
  105 to 110 degree range on Saturday. Temperatures may cool
  slightly on Sunday, with lower humidities.

- Thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return Sunday through Wednesday.
  Severe weather potential is uncertain at this time, though
  storms due have potential for isolated heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Mostly clear skies this afternoon with breezy southerly winds
and warming temperatures. Highs today will peak in the upper 80s
to low 90s with heat indices near 100 across our western
counties. CAMs show some potential for isolated showers/storms
overnight tonight into early Friday. Building heights should
lead to subsidence inhibiting shower/storm development, but went
ahead and put in a slight chance with enough CAMS showing the
potential.

A building ridge over the Central Plains is leading to a warming
trend going into the weekend with heat indices getting into
100-110 range Friday and Saturday afternoons. HeatRisk values of
around 2 today will increase to a mix of 2 and 3 on Friday, and
predominantly 3 on Saturday due to the heat duration. For these
reasons, we have Heat Advisories in place for Friday and
Saturday from 11AM - 8PM. Have expanded to most of our area due
to surrounding areas adding in heat advisories as well. The
hotter day will likely be Saturday.

Saturday night a stronger shortwave ejects out of the northern
Rockies helping to push the ridge off to the east and bringing
back chances for storms Saturday night into early Sunday, mainly
north of our area but our northern counties could get clipped
near the South Dakota state line. Due to decreasing
geopotential heights, models are bringing high temperatures down
a bit on Sunday, but with continued southerly flow (no
significant wind shift) and mostly clear skies, we may end up
needing another heat advisory on Sunday with heat indices again
approaching 105.

Our next decent chance for showers and storms looks to be Sunday
night into early Monday as a second shortwave pulls the surface
front to our north south into our area. This will bring back
milder temperatures for next week with highs down around 90 on
Monday and Tuesday and heat indices around 95-100.

Nightly storm chances return as we see the build-up of a new
ridge over the Four-Corners region, placing us under and active
northwesterly flow pattern. This becomes well established by
midweek with highs dropping down into the mid 80s for Wednesday
and Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The last storm is dissipating just northeast of KOMA as of 17Z,
with partly cloudy skies expected to continue through the
afternoon. Cigs should mainly hang up around FL200, but a few
scattered clouds may develop around FL080 through the afternoon.
Winds are out of the southeast today gusting to 25 kt. These
will relax somewhat this evening, dropping to around 10-12kt.
Expect VFR conditions to hold through the TAF period with winds
staying out of the south or southeast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055-
     069-079-080-090-091.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for IAZ055-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy